์šฉ๊ฑด๋งŒ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํžˆ, ์›€์งค์€ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๋” ์ƒ๊ฐ
๊ธˆ๋ณ‘์˜์— ์ƒ์˜ํ•˜์„ธ์š”
์•ผ์ƒ์˜ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์—ด๋ ธ๋‹ค
์ฆ๊ฒจ์ฐพ๊ธฐ
์ตœ๊ทผ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ

The drunken passenger problem

์˜ค๋ Œ์ง€๋จน์€์ง€์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜๋จน์˜ค๋ Œ์ง€
24.02.21
ยท
์กฐํšŒ 937

๋ฌธ์ œ์„ค๋ช…

A line of 100 airline passengers is waiting to board a plane. They each hold a ticket to one of the 100 seats on that flight. For convenience, let's say that the nth passenger in line has a ticket for seat number 'n'. Being drunk, the first person in line picks a random seat (equally likely for each seat). All of the other passengers are sober, and will go to their assigned seats unless it is already occupied; If it is occupied, they will then find a free seat to sit in, at random. What is the probability that the last (100th) person to board the plane will sit in their own seat?

 

ํŒŒํŒŒ๊ณ  ์—ญ+ ์ˆ˜์ •

100๋ช…์˜ ํ•ญ๊ณต์‚ฌ ์Šน๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง„ ์ค„์ด ๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์— ํƒ‘์Šนํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋Œ€๊ธฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ํ•ด๋‹น ๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์˜ 100๊ฐœ ์ขŒ์„ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์ขŒ์„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ‹ฐ์ผ“์„ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŽธ์˜์ƒ, n๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ค„์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์Šน๊ฐ์ด n๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ‹ฐ์ผ“์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•ด๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค. ์ˆ ์— ์ทจํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ์—์„œ, ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ค„์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ž„์˜์˜ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์„ ํƒํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์Šน๊ฐ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ˆ ์— ์ทจํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋ฉฐ, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋ณธ์ธ์˜ ์ž๋ฆฌ์— ์•‰์•„ ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ง€์ •๋œ ์ขŒ์„์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐˆ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋งŒ์•ฝ ๋ณธ์ธ์˜ ์ž๋ฆฌ์— ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ž„์˜๋กœ ์•‰์„ ์ž์œ  ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐพ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์— ํƒ‘์Šนํ•˜๋Š” ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ 100๋ฒˆ์งธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ขŒ์„์— ์•‰์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ ์–ผ๋งˆ์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?

 

์ฃผ์ž…์‹ ๊ต์œก์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ €๋Š” ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ˆ˜์—ด ์ •์˜ํ•ด์„œ ํ’€์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ„๋“ค๊ป˜์„œ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ‘ธ์‹ค์ง€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฐธ๊ณ ๋กœ ๋‹ต์€ ยฝ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋Œ“๊ธ€
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์˜ค๋ Œ์ง€๋จน์€์ง€์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜๋จน์˜ค๋ Œ์ง€ ๊ธ€์“ด์ด
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ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ ์•ˆ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
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์ •์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ฏผ์ˆ˜
24.02.21
์žฌ๋ฏธ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋„ค์š”. ์ €๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ’€์–ด๋ดค์–ด์š”. ์Šน๊ฐ 100๋ช…์ด ์ค„ ์„œ ์žˆ๊ณ , n๋ฒˆ์งธ ์Šน๊ฐ์€ ํŽธ์˜์ƒ n๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„ ํ‹ฐ์ผ“์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค. ์ทจํ•œ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์Šน๊ฐ์€, ์šฐ์—ฐํžˆ 1๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์— ์•‰๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, 100๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์— ์•‰๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ 98๊ฐœ ์ขŒ์„ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์— ์•‰๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋™์ผํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ, ๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 1/100, 1/100, 98/100์ด๊ฒ ์ง€์š”. ๋งŒ์•ฝ 1๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์ด ์šฐ์—ฐํžˆ 1๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์— ์•‰๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์Šน๊ฐ์€ ๋ฌด์กฐ๊ฑด ์ž๊ธฐ ์ขŒ์„์— ์•‰์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ 1๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์ด 100๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์— ์•‰๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—์„œ๋ผ๋„ 100๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์€ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
์ •์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ฏผ์ˆ˜
24.02.22
์ด๋ฒˆ์—” 1๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์ด n๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค. 2, 3, 4 ๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์€ ์•Œ์•„์„œ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„๊ฐˆ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค n๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์€ ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๊ณ  ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ์ขŒ์„๋“ค ์ค‘์—์„œ ์•„๋ฌด ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€์š”. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋‚จ์€ ์ขŒ์„์€ 1, n+1, n+2, ..., 100์œผ๋กœ ์ด 100-n+1๊ฐœ์˜ ์ขŒ์„์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. n๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์ด 1๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ์†๋‹˜๋“ค์€ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„ ์•‰๊ณ , 100๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์€ 100๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. n๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์ด 100๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๋ฉด 100๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์€ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ž๋ฆฌ์— ์•‰์„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ฒ ์ง€์š”. n๋ฒˆ ์†๋‹˜์ด ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ์ขŒ์„ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ธ m๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์—ญ์‹œ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. m-1๋ฒˆ ์†๋‹˜๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์—†์ด ์•ˆ์ž๊ฐ€, m๋ฒˆ ์†๋‹˜์ด ์–ด๋””๋ฅผ ํƒํ•˜๋Š๋ƒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
์ •์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ฏผ์ˆ˜
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์ฆ‰ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ, N๋ฒˆ ์Šน๊ฐ์ด N๋ฒˆ ์ขŒ์„์ด ๋น„์–ด์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋ฉด, 1๋ฒˆ์— ์•‰๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, 100๋ฒˆ์— ์•‰๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฒˆํ˜ธ์— ์•‰์•„์„œ ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋’ค๋กœ ๋„˜๊ฒจ์ฃผ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ 1๋ฒˆ์— ์•‰๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์˜ ์ˆ˜์™€ 100๋ฒˆ์— ์•‰๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์˜ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€์นญ์ ์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ, ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 1/2๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
@์ •์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ฏผ์ˆ˜
์˜ค๋ Œ์ง€๋จน์€์ง€์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜๋จน์˜ค๋ Œ์ง€ ๊ธ€์“ด์ด
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์šฐ์™€ ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•˜์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.. ๊ณ„์† ๋’ค๋กœ ๋„˜๊ฒจ๋„ 1 ๋˜๋Š” 100์„ ์„ ํƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€์นญ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋‹ˆ๊นŒ 1/2๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ตฐ์š”. ์ฒ˜์Œ์— ์™œ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹
@์ •์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ฏผ์ˆ˜
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